Odds are Vegas not pleased
By Michael Vega
Globe Staff / January 24, 2008
Although the rest of the sporting world may look at the Patriots as being one win away from completing a perfect season, Las Vegas views them through a much different prism.
To the oddsmakers on the Strip, the 18-0 Patriots are really 10-8.
"As far as the pointspread goes, that's correct," said Chuck Esposito, director of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace, where the Patriots were installed as 14-point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII Feb. 3.
"Granted, it's a lot of points," Esposito said, "but we looked for a number that would draw good two-way action [an equal number of bets on both teams]. We're not predicting who is going to win or lose, but it's a pointspread that we feel is going to draw good two-way action."
Since its initial release, however, the pointspread has gone down to 12, which, oddsmakers say, is not so much a reflection of the recent news about quarterback Tom Brady's right ankle sprain as it is of the Patriots' 2-7 record vs. the spread in their last nine games.
"[Brady] would probably affect the line more than anybody in the NFL; maybe Peyton Manning could rival him," said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "But it might be a 10-point drop if it went from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel. It would probably go down to New England 3. But there's not any feeling out there that Brady won't play."
Before news broke about Brady's ankle, "I think the betting public was looking for value and felt that, at 13 or 14, there was just too good a value on the Giants," Esposito said. "They have covered nine out of 10 road games and have won 10 straight road games and covered all three playoff games."
It has prompted many bettors to take the Giants and the points.
"We opened the Super Bowl line at 14 and it quickly moved from 14 to 13 1/2, and ever since then, it's been dropping little by little," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, who estimated that 70 percent of the early action has been on the Giants. "It's a little odd, because the favorite in the Super Bowl is always inflated and in this case, it's no different. This is one line that we make that's geared toward the general public, because the general public's money always dominates the action in the Super Bowl. When we put that line out, we expected a little bit more support on the Patriots and we haven't seen that yet, but we're hoping it comes out later."
At the beginning of the season, the Patriots were a sure bet after they trampled not only their opposition en route to an 8-0 start, but the Vegas sports books as well, beating the spread in those wins. Their perfect record (against the spread, that is) was blemished when they failed to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 24-20 triumph at Indianapolis Nov. 4.
"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Kornegay said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season. The last game that we won - one of the games that we won - was the Eagles game [a 31-28 Patriots triumph]. That was the last game we saw this huge snowball effect of support for the Patriots.
"Ever since then, it's kind of been a lukewarm feeling from our gamblers."
That was likely because the Patriots have been performing poorly against the spread since midseason.
"The Patriots really are an incredible team and our lines reflect their excellence," Sinisi said. "Earlier in the year, they were covering the spread at an inordinate rate. So what we do is we always adjust off the results and the betting action each week, and those lines would continually go up and up and up.
"They've kind of reached a point where the Patriots are continuing to win, but they're not covering, which is lessening the pain on our end."
The only games in which the Patriots beat the spread in their last nine were against Buffalo (favored by 16, they won, 56-10) and Pittsburgh (they won, 34-13, after the line dropped from 15 to 10 1/2) when "a lot of money came in on Pittsburgh," Sinisi said).
"Last week against San Diego [a 21-12 win], it was 14 and there was a little fluctuation back and forth, but it closed at 14," Sinisi said. "The previous week [a 31-20 win], we opened them at 11 1/2 against Jacksonville and they closed at 13 1/2, so there was New England money. Even though they have cooled off spread-wise, they are still the glamour team and the numbers are still big because of a) performance and b) they still draw money."
And money, as everyone knows, follows money.
"It's been very difficult to book these games," Kornegay said. "They're 18-0 and the books have won maybe four of those games. The rest of those games, we've lost on. During the course of the year, the Patriots games have been like mini-Super Bowls for us.
"In most cases, it's been the game of the week. It's the game that has the most action on it, and whether you bet against them or for them, everybody's watching the Patriot game. And in most cases, the book wound up on the short end of the stick when the results came in.
"I can't say that we've really 'loved' the Patriots, but I can say this: It's been an exciting year and the Patriots obviously have been a big part of it. The electricity and the atmosphere in the sports books every time the Patriots play has just been tremendous; however, the sports book results haven't been in our favor most of the time."
Michael Vega can be reached at vega@globe.com.
(c) Copyright 2008 Globe Newspaper Company.
Bet Early on the Underdogs in Bowl Games: Joe Saumarez-Smith
Commentary by Joe Saumarez-Smith
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- College football's Bowl game season is starting and for bettors and bookies alike it is a critical three weeks.
In the past two seasons the Las Vegas bookies have had the upper hand. People like to bet on favorites in pretty much any sport, but the skew toward wagering on big-name teams is even greater in college football than it is in the National Football League, National Basketball Association or Major League Baseball.
Last year the underdogs went 18-14 against the point spread in the post-season games. That added up to a very profitable result for most sportsbooks and a tough run for those who bet on the favorites.
So should we be betting on the same performance this year? Yes, but only up to a point. Chris David, sports editorial director for VegasInsider.com, says the key to betting the Bowl season is to bet the underdogs before Jan. 1 and then switch to betting the favorites.
"The best handicappers have always told me to bet the dogs early and the favorites late,'' says David. "It makes sense, really. With 64 schools out of 119 qualified to play in a Bowl game it doesn't take much to make a Bowl game.''
Smaller schools are likely to be much more focused and to appreciate the fact they have made it to a Bowl game, and they'll play their hearts out. By contrast, for the bigger schools that haven't made it to one of the prominent Bowl matchups it can all be a bit of a letdown, David said.
Lack of Motivation
"How do you think California is going to feel about playing Air Force?'' David said. "California was expected to win the Pac-10 conference, and how are they going to get up for a game in Texas? I just can't see the motivation.''
At the end of the season, the University of California placed seventh in the Pacific-10 conference, with a 3-6 record in the group and a 6-6 record overall. California is scheduled to play Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, held Dec. 31 in Fort Worth, Texas.
"Later on in the big matchups, talent tends to prevail,'' David said."The really big teams tend to have better coaching, be more skilled and need to show off their class to NFL coaches. So after Jan. 1, I tend to think there is more value in the favorites.''
Kenny White, chief operations officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the monopoly supplier of betting lines to Nevada's casinos, says momentum is a big factor in picking teams to beat the point spread. "When you have a team that has a big reputation but poor results, that is a team you want to oppose.''
New Coaches
The main issue for linesmakers and bettors is that while the best teams in each conference are known, the relative strength of the conferences isn't, White said.
"If early on the Big Ten teams start getting good results then you want to get your money on the other teams in the conference as quickly as possible because the point spread is going to move,'' he said.
Both David and White say that one of the major elements in this year's Bowl games is coaching. Eight schools have hired or are expecting to hire a new coach prior to their Bowl fixture and both analysts say that it is hard for a team to adapt to a new coach immediately.
"I would be wary of these teams,'' David said. "Instead, go for the teams that have coaches who are proven in winning Bowl games and coach their teams to win them. Boston College and Utah both fit this pattern, having each won five straight Bowl games.''
Underdogs
David's favorite Bowl statistic is that during the past 25 years, underdogs in Bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 (83 percent) against the spread, including 2-1 last year.
"What's amazing is that this year's slate has 13 teams that meet the criteria of being underdogs with a great rushing game.'' He recommends putting money on Navy, Air Force, Arkansas, West Virginia, Illinois, Oregon, Houston, Nevada, Fresno State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Southern Mississippi, and Michigan State.
White has fewer selections but will be cheering on Central Michigan, Mississippi State, and University of California, Los Angeles.
"The public has gone for their opponents in a big way and we feel the lines are now pretty favorable on these three teams,'' White said.
(Joe Saumarez-Smith is chief executive officer of Sports Gaming, a U.K. management consulting firm to the gaming industry. He also owns European online bingo companies and odds comparison Web sites. The opinions expressed are his own.)
(c) BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Gambling on beating the odds
Johnny Ward meets professional gambler Declan Meagher whose strict -- and profitable -- betting regime is built on self-control and hard work
Sunday December 16 2007
W E dine over steak and wine. A few weeks previously, I had become acquainted with Declan Meagher on a weekend in Milan, and had made my maiden meeting with his curious profession.
Now, he discusses his two-bed house (it was a three-bed, but one was converted to accommodate a jacuzzi -- serenity after a gruelling day's graft). He tells me that he eats out at least once weekly with his girlfriend, and plans to exchange his present 2005 car for a 2008 Audi TT in the New Year.
There are two common misconceptions about gambling: the first is that gamblers in general bet in order to make money; the second is that it is impossible to make money gambling. Declan proves the falsity of the latter, and is a rare exception to the former untruth.
Consider what I will call the line of equilibrium. A bad gambler -- that is to say the average gambler -- starts the day at that line. Once he starts losing, he will not be content until he has returned to the line of equilibrium, or back level.
Should he have the fortune of augmenting the bulk of his wallet, the temptation is to play with his profits, either due to brashness or dissatisfaction with the amount of money he has won. Sooner or later, he will be back at the line of equilibrium.
To Declan, either scenario is anathema. He is a professional gambler. "I used to work with racehorses for Dermot Weld," he explains, "and went over to Moyglare Stud most winters to break in the yearlings. I handed in my notice around February 2002 and was planning to stay in Moyglare for a few more months.
"I was, however, already making money on Betfair and although I hadn't told anyone yet, it was my intention to quit Moyglare and go full-time."
Circumstance would accelerate his departure. "I had a pain in my chest the morning of Istabraq's last Champion Hurdle run when he was pulled up. I went into work anyway and rode out one lot but it was agony and I had to go home.
"Nobody in Moyglare would believe me, as I was only telling them the day before of the excuses I used to come up with to get off school during Cheltenham. I went to the doctor and he reckoned that my lung had collapsed. It happened before with the other side so he sent me to hospital -- but I postponed it until after the last race. It had collapsed, though, and I took that as my opportunity to give up working with horses and go gambling full-time. I've been doing it ever since."
On the weekend in Milan, Declan placed a few football bets and laid (backed against) Manchester United moments before they took the lead against Blackburn.
The average gambler would have volleyed an insult towards the TV, or at the very least given a facial expression that betrayed frustration. Declan was without emotion -- the stoic demeanour of self-discipline, without which no professional gambler will prosper long-term.
While he does bet on football and other sports, Declan estimates that about 95 per cent of his bets are on horses; more precisely, he has developed a very complex system based on his own pricing-up of English races.
"At the moment I mainly operate in the place markets and I lay or back to get a return of €5,000. So if I laid a horse at even money, my stake would be €2,500; if I backed a horse at 4/1, it would be €1,000.
"I normally price up the market and I'll then back if I think the price is good and lay if I think it's bad."
This is considerably more convoluted than what it may seem. He has put into practice a template whereby, based primarily on the odds in a win market, he can -- taking into account a margin of error -- automatically instruct his computer to lay or back horses on the place market.
In essence (or otherwise), the theories of probability and variance dictate Declan's betting. Consider that he did pass maths in school, and it reinforces how ultimately redundant this country's Leaving Cert programme is.
On the off-chance that you are beginning to consider professional gambling an appealing alternative to your present bread-earner, the 31-year-old stresses that it is far from easy.
"Betfair, like bookmakers, have to make a profit and over the course of the year I pay them quite a bit in commission even though I'm on the lowest commission level -- two per cent of my winnings. At my current betting levels I would pay about €125,000 per year in commission, which means I have to make that much just to break even.
"In saying that, I'm obviously making more than that or I wouldn't be doing it -- but it takes a lot of work and self-control. You need an edge for a start and while it's possible to find one, it's up to any potential gambler to do his research and come up with possible flaws in a particular market that he can take advantage of."
His philosophy on sports betting -- and in particular football -- is perhaps of more pertinent intrigue to the standard punter.
Noel Browne's captivating biography Against The Tide unwittingly promotes the perils of that approach in politics, but it is a perfectly pragmatic policy in gambling.
Topical examples of Declan's bets include: backing Croatia on the premise that England were grossly over-rated by the odds; opposing plunged-on Russia even though they needed a win and Israel had no apparent motivation; backing Milan against Celtic due to the over-reaction to the draw being sufficient for Milan; and laying Ricky Hatton and some of the flood of sentimental money.
As with life, there are highs and lows in gambling. The crux is to identify every winner and loser as merely a dot on a vast map. One can determine probability, but predicting the future is a step beyond.
"I try not to let big wins or losses affect me," the Leixlip native stresses, "but if I had a really bad run it might affect me a bit. Sometimes it seems everything goes wrong. I remember one time I was having a bad month and a bad day. I then backed four horses for a place in a 15-runner handicap.
"I also place-laid three horses whose win odds were 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1. I can't remember the place odds but the horses I laid came in first, second and third. I just looked at the screen and laughed. Stuff like that happens and you have to just get on with it: if it affects your decisions, you're in trouble.
"I've obviously also had times when everything goes right and Denman winning the Hennessy was a real good result for me. I had Denman backed and laid a few for a place. I won €16,000, which is the most I ever won on a single race."
Without resorting to gratuitous praise for the betting exchanges -- they, like bookmakers, are about making money -- it would be virtually impossible for professional gamblers to operate without them. Traditional bookmakers have no problem accommodating your bets -- as long as you are losing. Otherwise, they generally have no interest in your custom.
Declan does all his gambling on Betfair, and does not envisage a career change for the foreseeable future.
"I hope to make enough money in the next few years to invest in some businesses -- maybe open my own restaurant or something like that. I'm also getting more into poker and when I get better at that I might spend more time on it as I find it a fascinating game."
He recalls meeting his girlfriend for the first time at a popular Dublin nightclub, where -- typical of its ilk -- the racket imposed by the DJ made conversation a chore.
"She texted me the next day and asked me what it was like being a professional gardener."
Four years later and he nonchalantly proclaims that "she has become quite good at poker".
(c)independent.ie
Pats push the odds en route to perfection
By Ray Ratto
CBSSports.com Columnist
Over the years, the Las Vegas wise guys have gotten a reputation for being able to divine the future, for knowing better than the average slob how a game is going to turn out because they either do more homework, have been at it more often, or are just French-kissed by God.
But sometimes the market strikes back.
In other words, ladies, gentlemen and undecideds, we give you Philadelphia at New England.
As you pick up your morning bookie, you have probably noticed that the Patriots are favored by anything from 22 to 23 1/2 points, making this either the most lopsided spread or damned near the most lopsided since such things were first calculated. And in doing so, gave us the first glimpse of New England vulnerability, and maybe even a far-fetched explanation of why Bill Belichick does what he does.
While odds are occasionally regionalized for market preference (you know, to screw the guy who bets the local team every week), the Pats at minus-22 is considered the second-highest spread in NFL history, behind the 23 the 49ers laid against the Bengals in 1993, and ahead of the 20 1/2 the 49ers gave to Tampa Bay the year before. But if the line actually has moved to 23 1/2, as it has in some shops already, this is the big mama of big mamas.
Especially, it should be added, when you discover that the outlaw line, the one the Vegas smarts establish to judge where the public line should go, started at 17. They immediately bet it up to 22. In short, you can't find a slob to bet the Eagles for free furniture.
So what, you ask. The Patriots are one of the best teams ever, and the Eagles have A.J. Feeley. What's your point?
Well, for one, the two 20-plus lines we already know about, 49ers-Bengals and 49ers-Buccaneers, ended up with the visiting underdog losing but covering. We don't know if the lines served as motivation, or whether asking for three touchdowns is just more than any NFL team should be asked to give.
But for two, we wonder if this is the first chink in New England's aura in invincibility -- as though the Green Lantern power rings they were all given in training camp are starting to show signs of wear.
The Patriots have failed to cover only once, against the Colts. They gave 5 1/2, trailed much of the game, and won by 4. Not a big deal, but as close to getting inside the Patriots as any team has done.
Every other game has been a hunch rout, to the point where their average score is 41-16. They are accused routinely of running up the score, either to make a point about the Jets' taping controversy, or to make a point about the '72 Dolphins, or to make a point about the Holy Roman Empire. The point is, Belichick believes this to be one of the greatest teams ever assembled, and is seeing to it that they prove it week in and week out, and damn the pundits.
To which we say, fine. This ain't kid's soccer we're talking about here, and if Belichick is so confident in his team that he thinks not even a football-playing homicidal maniac will get to Tom Brady, then that's how it is. In our neck of the woods, we have two teams which, combined, are being outscored by the Patriots 411-293 and outdefensed 446-157. The line for a Patriots-49ers/Raiders game would thus be about 45 1/2, and most folks would be inclined to give rather than take the points.
But the books have their own job to do, and they've dominated far longer than Belichick. They have to scare up Eagle money, and to do that, they have to set a bar that the Patriots have cleared only six times. And they even have the power to move the bar when the balance of bets suits them, the equivalent of moving the goal posts and manning the replay booth at the same time.
In other words, the Patriots are now being asked by Las Vegas to win their game every week, and they've gotten to the point where they're asking the Patriots to win the game with Stephen Gostkowski's leg tied behind his back. If New England is seeking perfect perfection, fine. If they're seeking for invulnerability, well, that's a little harder to come by. The Indianapolis game is the closest anyone has gotten to getting the best of Belichick in his quest for world domination, and since then the Colts have hit E while the Patriots are still eating with both hands, to the point where more people now think they will run the table than not.
But the bookies can do something about it, if even on the ethereal plane, and they are. They are betting with their feet that the Patriots can't be perfect every time out, and since no team as we understand it has ever covered every game or even gotten to 15-1, this is the new frontier.
I mean, if you're trying to establish your galactic superiority, you're trying to run up scores nobody can match, and part of keeping the score in football is covering the line each week. Only the betting line is a tougher nut to make, and while this seems like a triviality to you Patriots fans, it isn't to the poor nitwit who just put little Tabitha's orthodonture on Eagles plus 23 1/2. I mean, that's a rooting interest in a Patriot failure, even if it isn't one, and where there's a spark, there can be a flame. Who knows how things like this get started?
We don't, of course. If we were playing the game, we'd give the points too. Because while the spread is an artificial way to evaluate a team's relative strengths and weaknesses, the Patriots are trying to cover each week by beating their opponents flat and then running them over with Bob Kraft's Buick, just to make sure Roger Goodell and everyone else gets the point. It's just one more way to keep score when the traditional way is working so poorly, and so lines like minus-22 should be noted.
So it has been. Next week, the Patriots are at free-falling Baltimore. One shudders to think what Vegas has in mind for that one.
(c) MMVII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
St. Louis Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview
Cincinnati, OH 12/09/2007 10:29 AM GMT (FINDITT)
Kris Lazaro, expert football handicapper from NFLSystems.com, has made a prediction on this game.
The Cincinnati Bengals host the St. Louis Rams this Sunday as a current 10 point home favorite. The line has jumped up 4 points since news of Rams regular quarterback Marc Bulger will potentially not play. Both teams have struggled this year and the author believes neither team should be favored, let alone by more than a field goal.
The St. Louis Rams started the season 0-8, but have since then won 3 of their last 4 games.
Even though Bulger may not play under center this Sunday, the Rams still have a good quarterback in Gus Frerotte. The Rams still have the offensive power of wide outs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt and running back Steven Jackson. The Rams are 3-9 straight up, 4-8 against the number and both 2-4 on the road straight up and against the spread. The author believes that 10 points is a lot of points to give to a good offense, and add to the fact that Cincinnati has no business laying points to anybody, and the points look very tempting.
Copyright 2007, TransWorldNews, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Vital letter to man at No.10
MARTIN HANNAN
(mhannan@scotlandonsunday.com)
I HAVE prepared the following letter, in my capacity as a concerned citizen of the UK, which I will send tomorrow to the Prime Minister, 10 Downing Street, London:
Dear Mr Brown,
You will recall that, during your spell as Chancellor of the Exchequer, you changed the way that bookmakers pay tax. Instead of bettors being charged 9% of their stakes or winnings, which was then passed to the Treasury - the so-called betting tax - you started the system whereby bookmakers now pay Gross Profits Tax. This was a laudable move by you, and sparked a sustained and genuine growth in betting, which has greatly enriched bookmakers and also the Treasury.
Since that change, this country's leading bookmaking chains have repaid your faith in them by a series of underhand activities, which have led to an extraordinary situation which threatens to cause serious damage to a sporting industry that is part of our British heritage, which I know you wish to preserve.
In brief: the big chains have colluded to try to stop the introduction of Turf TV, a perfectly-legitimate business activity on the part of many leading racecourses, who want to control their own broadcasting rights. The bookmakers' aim is to preserve their own stakes in the Satellite Information Services company, which hitherto exclusively provided race pictures for the nation's betting shops.
The big bookmakers' outrageous actions included taking the Turf TV partners to court in an attempt to preserve their own monopoly. As you are no doubt aware, because of the bookmakers' intransigence, the annual betting levy scheme negotiations broke down, and the Department of Culture, Media and Sport will now determine the scale of the next levy.
Such a breakdown in normal practice is bad enough, but I have genuine fears for the future of horse-racing in Britain, and even for public health.
Without any concern for the damage they are causing to racing, the bookmakers have engineered a situation where consumers, ie punters, are being denied the chance to see pictures from six racecourses at present. By January, 31 of Britain's 59 tracks will be blanked out by the big chains, and there is no doubt that consumers will turn away from the sport, some of them on a permanent basis.
I genuinely fear that the current drift away from betting on racing to betting on fixed odds betting terminals will become a permanent trend. These machines are specifically designed to be addictive, in my opinion.
I am therefore writing to you to seek action by the relevant departments. Please can you ask the Office of Fair Trading immediately to investigate the big bookmakers' role in what is clearly anti-competitive behaviour over the issue of Turf TV.
Further, can you instruct the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform to inquire into how an innovation which could help many businesses, ie Turf TV, is being hampered by the bookmaking chains.
On the issue of the levy, can I ask that you insist that the Department of Culture, Media and Sport force the bookmakers to pay a vastly-increased levy to racing, if only as a punishment for their nefarious activities. They can well afford to do so, as they have been making record profits.
Can you also ask the appropriate health departments to investigate the phenomenon of fixed odds betting terminals and their addictive properties.
It is time for the big bookmaking chains to learn a vital lesson - that they exist and make money only by leave of your government. Please act against them now.
Yours, etc.
Last updated: 04-Nov-07 00:14 GMT
(c) 2007 Scotsman.com
Jeff Haney explains why the appearance of games with a point spread of 3 has downgraded the Plaza's parlay cards
October 19, 2007
"Ah, the power of the press," one reader put it in an e-mail, perhaps taking a subtle dig at this column as well as a more direct shot at the Plaza's sports book.
He signed off with one of those doodads that uses keyboard characters to form a frowning face.
The source of his displeasure was a downgrade in the makeup of the Plaza's football parlay cards since our survey found the Plaza's cards offered the best payout schedule in Southern Nevada this year (Las Vegas Sun, Sept. 17).
The payout odds have held steady on the "half-point" parlay cards, so called because the betting line in each game ends in "1/2" to avert "pushes," or ties , against the point spread.
But in the past couple of weeks, some NFL games have been included with a point spread of exactly 3, with the proviso that "ties lose."
If the favorite happens to win by 3, the tickets of all bettors who played either side of the game go down in flames.
That's what happened Sunday when the Packers beat the Redskins 17-14 and the Buccaneers beat the Titans 13-10. Green Bay and Tampa Bay were both 3-point favorites. As with any "ties lose" parlay cards, bettors who play the favorite are effectively laying 3 1/2 points and underdog bettors are getting only 2 1/2 points - in the same game.
:<( indeed.
For bettors who avoid the whole-number point spreads, the Plaza's parlay-card odds are still the juiciest in town, as we reported last month. Highlights include 6-1 odds on three-teamers, 219-1 on eight-teamers and 899-1 on 10-teamers.
The "power of the press" comment, and similar e-mail missives, alluded to the debate regarding where to draw the line in reporting advantageous gambling situations.
Obviously, to use an extreme example, it would be silly to identify by name a particular 3-card poker dealer who works the graveyard shift at a certain Strip resort and is careless enough to inadvertently reveal her hole cards each hand. Once exposed , she would either shape up or disappear, along with the opportunity.
Parlay-card odds, however, are more public, less "fragile" and quite interesting, considering payout schedules vary widely by casino even on cards that are otherwise nearly identical.
They will remain fair game here.
Book it
The 2007-08 edition of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, always in demand during the preseason, has arrived at the Gambler's Book Shop, 630 S. 11th St.
The Blue Ribbon ($21.95) contains no information on betting lines or how teams performed against the point spread, but it is treasured by college basketball gamblers for its detailed, team-by-team reports.
Sales of the book in Las Vegas are driven by professional handicappers and media members as well as sports bettors, Gambler's Book Shop proprietor Howard Schwartz said.
"A lot of the value comes in helping to analyze the nonconference portion of the season," Schwartz said. "There are always surprising upsets early on, and the team summaries can tell you who recruited well, who might be due for a big drop-off. A lot of bettors think the early season lines are softest, before conference play begins."
Nongamblers such as coaches and players also rely on the Blue Ribbon, Schwartz said, in their preparation for early-season opponents.
Contest update
Today's day/night doubleheader in the Leroy's sports book ' s "Money Talks" football handicapping contest features three sports handicappers and another entrant known for his poker acumen.
From 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. at Fitzgeralds, local author and handicapper Andy Iskoe faces former Las Vegas oddsmaker Russ Culver (KENO 1460-AM). From 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. at the Riviera, it's Tony Ricci against professional poker player Bill Edler (KSFN 1140-AM).
Last week, Larry Trusley (4-2-1 against the point spread in seven selections) beat Dave Hochman (1-5-1) and "Doc" Moseman (4-3) ousted Jeff Whitelaw (2-4-1).
The contestants are 63-68-9 collectively heading into today's matches.
Each of the event's 32 contestants put up $5,000 to compete, the highest entry fee for a sports handicapping contest in Nevada.
Euro look
The sports handicapping section of the European edition of Card Player magazine recently took a detour from its standard fare - think rugby World Cup and darts champions stepping up to the oche - to examine the obscure, niche sport of American football.
The article recommended betting on the Patriots, Colts, Chargers and Seahawks this season, even as strong favorites, speculating three of the four would go at least 10-6 against the point spread.
So far, so good: Led by the Pats, 6-0 straight-up and against the number, the teams have combined for a 14-9 record ATS (61 percent).
Bettors following the Euro Card Player system will have to close their eyes and hold their nose before betting on the Pats this week against the Dolphins. New England is favored by 17, nearly as large as a point spread gets in the NFL.
Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.
All contents (c) 1996 - 2007 Las Vegas Sun, Inc.
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